After the red mist has settled, and the Christmas season of giving (unless you are Manchester City) is underway, I have been forced to sit back and truly take a look at whether or not we have the right manager at the helm… or if that even matters. It would be a lie to say that fantasies of a new manager or reading “Rafa sacked” did not come swelling through my brain like the waves in the ocean, but at the same time my heart has never quite felt comfortable with that. After all, Rafa brought Liverpool from “fighting for 4th” to “fighting for the title…” and even winning the Champions League in the process. But has that saving grace worn its welcome? Or will it always keep him in the job as long as we qualify for Europe? Rumors of unrest in the dressing room, our poor league form (and cup form, for that matter), and fascinatingly horrendous decision-making with substitutions and line-ups has Rafa under fire by both the media and for the first legitimate time from supporters.
“I’m IMMORTAL! I shalt not be sacked!”The loss to Portsmouth was truly abysmal from just about any viewpoint. Whether you want to point at the fact that we lost to the last place team by 0-2, or that you want to point at a shocking lineup which ONCE AGAIN pitted two holding midfielders despite the fact that we should have been cramming the match down their throats, OR if you want to mention being down a goal and putting on a left back and Jay Spearing instead of Ngog or Babel, you have a legit argument that Rafa may have lost the plot. But as is always the case, there are so many more factors at play than just a terrible run of form. You can’t always just sack the manager if things go awry. And there are always, and I mean ALWAYS, financial implications… and political ones. I’d like to underline a few of those reasons why Rafa can’t- and almost definitely won’t- be sacked, whether you or I like it or not!
MASSIVE PAY-OUT
When Rafa signed his five year extension this year, it was with our excellent second place finish in the league in mind, and yet another run deep into the Champions League tournament (including a 4-0 thumping of Real Madrid, with it being 5-0 on aggregate). Nobody expected what was to follow, and therefore his contract included a few stumbling blocks for any potential sacking. Long story short, and made incredibly simple, Rafa would be paid 20 million pounds if we were to sack him. Could Liverpool really afford to pull the trigger on Rafa for more than we paid for Aquilani or Johnson? That is the equivalent of a mega signing, and perhaps that type of signing could allow Rafa to turn things around at the helm, or add 2-3 players of quality for the purposes of depth. To sack him would be to lose this money AND take the risk of trying to find someone new.
FRAILTY BEHIND THE SCENES
Liverpool FC right now, as the whole world is well aware, is not the most stable of places. We have a brand new director of football in Christian Purslow, we have two owners who are just trying to keep their heads above water with the supporters AND their finances, and this all means that Rafa is definitely more influential and powerful than any of them. As a result, to sack Rafa would be nearly impossible. He has support in so many places, and his power reaches to just about everywhere in the club. If we were to let him go, I have a feeling we would lose a tremendous amount of staff behind the scenes, and I do not think our owners or director are willing to take that drastic of a move given how little faith most people have in them already! A complete meltdown is the only thing I could see that would lead to this, and that meltdown would not be evident until about March. Let’s not forget, either, that bringing a new manager into this chaos would not be easy.
AVAILABILITY, OR LACK THEREOF, OF TOP-CLASS MANAGERS
Rafa Benitez is in that top tier of managers that most clubs would want, though some might say he is in the second tier. Others up in that category are already with a top club and are not searching for a club to manage. The likes of Ferguson, Wenger, Capello, Guardiola, Ancelotti, Mourinho, Lippi, and Del Bosque are all serving happily where they are at and do not look like budging. There is one man who I think Liverpool could go for, and probably SHOULD go for if Rafa was to go, and that is Guus Hiddink, who right now is only the manager of Russia, who did not qualify for the World Cup. He did tremendously with Chelsea in their transition between Scolari and Ancelotti, and I would think he could be a good option. The problem is, he is probably the ONLY good option. Some might argue that Martin O’Neill or Harry Redknapp should be given the opportunity to manage a big 4 side, but I personally think they are more experts at making do with little, and with little pressure. At Liverpool, the pressure is anything but little, and managing a club with such huge expectations is a completely different kettle of fish than what they are accustomed to. Plus, would that REALLY be an upgrade on Rafa? I don’t think so.
THE SUPPORTERS
Let’s not forget that Liverpool supporters would not tolerate a sacking unless an absolutely top class manager was waiting in the wings and that sacking him wouldn’t put us even FURTHER into financial crisis. Sometimes the Mascherano-like red mist that blinds us from reason can take over and we forget that there are other factors at hand. The supporters of our great club are very knowledgeable, and although we are aware that the club is not moving forward, it WAS six months ago… in a major way. As supporters, we are not turning into the fairweather fans that you see over here in America. I refuse to believe it. We love our club through thick and thin, and keep a cool head throughout it all. Rafa may be struggling to get results this season, and has made some stunningly poor decisions, but he IS working with some injuries to his top players, and gets flak if he takes them out, although we ALL know he needs them to be out to recover. It is obvious that Gerrard is not fit. Not even close. Yet he is playing because of the pressure to qualify for the Champions League. In other words, Rafa does not have it easy. That said, if he wouldn’t play Lucas next to Mascherano every flippin’ match, we wouldn’t have a problem with it!!!
CONCLUSION
Taking into account these problems with firing the manager, you have to then look at the positives of such a move. The problem I am facing with this is that there are not many positives. Has Rafa maximized the potential of our players, and would letting him go unleash Pandora’s box and send us spiralling down the table? Or, would a new manager like Mourinho or Hiddink get the best out of them that Rafa never could? That is always a possibility, and if they DID get the best out of our players, that is indeed a major positive. We would also perhaps get better press, as it is clear the media does not appreciate Rafa. They constantly snip at him and criticize him and our club. If we had someone else at the helm, maybe we would be filled with more support in all quarters. Who knows. Regardless, these are some major positives, but the only ones I can think of. The end of the Rafalution may be near, and it saddens me because it has been such a great ride. I do not honestly believe it will happen, though, when I think with my brain instead of my heart, because there are so many financial and political problems with such a move.
No matter what happens, we can’t lose 0-2 to the likes of Portsmouth. A similar fixture awaits on Boxing Day against Wolves at Anfield, and that is now a must-win. For both Rafa and for the club.
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Almost true. But I still trust he, Rafa is the top class manager, he always think about football and work hard for the team. But it’s not enough. There are lots of mistake he had done; bad deals for not suitable players, not support to a good young player but always trust himself for all planning. His EGO bring the team to this crisis. The momentum we did last season end with his decision, push Alonso and some good supported player and bring useless instead. In this point , he always have the reason, but mostly of opinion are the answer.
(*sigh*)….notanother Rafa-apologist article……
Mate, these are not reasons, why we absolutely cannot afford to sack Rafa; these are simply excuses for why we should not sack him. And not very good ones at that.
Let’s review:-
Massive Pay-out – indubitably the number one reason always offered as to why we can’t sack Rafa, yet the people who give these excuses, always forget to note, or at least acknowledge the very real possibility that keeping a poor manager on board way past the sell-by date can have serious long-term ramifications on the club irrespective of the cost of getting rid of him. To wit; how much does Liverpool stand to lose financially if we persist with this incompetence at all levels, and end up finishing the Season out of Champion’s League places and worse yet (which is not entirely unrealisitic at this point on time given our form) out of Europa League places and end up not playing in Europe at all next Season? For one thing, I believe the tytpical gross per Season from European football (CL or Europa Cup) tends to come up to just about the same GBP 20 Million that we are afraid of losing if we fire him now, and which we would lose anyway, if we still had to fire him at the end of the Season. but worse than that, the number of potential big-name signings who will not want to sign for Liverpool to play non-European cup football next year, would be more than debilitating in the long run, given the number of glaring holes in class in the team that we have right now – all of which will make that 20 million that you’re worried about seem like nothing.
Frailty behind the scenes;- so let me get this straight. You’re argument on this front is that we cannot afford to sack Rafa, because he is too powerful, or rather, we have allowed him to grow too powerful, thanks in part to the unstable and uncertain ownership situation? That barely makes any sense whatsoever. Tom Hicks is one of the all-too-powerful (and equally incompetent) owners of the club right now, and yet I hear no one offering up the excuse that he is too powerful to get rid of from the club. That’s nonsense. If Rafa leaves and has to take his backroom staff with him, so be it. And if anything isn’t that what always happens in any case, with changes in management?
Availability of Top-class managers: How exactly does this equation change if we wait until the end of the Season to fire him, or after next Season. There will always be a scarcity and shortage of top-class managers. They don’t grow on trees – so how can that be offered as an excuse not to get rid of someone who might be doing th club more harm by staying in the forlorn hope that he’ll either get it right, or that someone more competent will magically become available? And what of King Kenny or Sammy Lee? Are you telling me that either of them can’t or wouldn’t want to take over in the interim until a better or more permanent option became available? Last time I checked King Kenny was the last Liverpool manager to win the League, and one of the quintessential true-Reds to ever walk through the club. You’re telling me he wouldn’t want to take the reigns for the remainder of the Season or that supporters would be against him taking over? Really?
The Supporters: – the last time I checked, the supporters were just about split on whether Rafa should stay or should go, with those supporting him as the games go by, as performances get worse, and as Rafa gets more entrenched in his stubborn, bizarre and losing tactical decisions (which even you had the good grace to acknowledge). Again, the only way this equation changes if nothing happens, and Rafa is allowed to go on, with Liverpool still losing,is that even more supporters will be calling for his head come March or whenever the hells it is you think would be an appropriate time to fire him. and there’s will always be a pocket of supporters who think that he can still turn it around, and he can learn from the error of his ways; – despite all evidence to the contrary. But what we won’t always have is time, to fix this sinking ship, and the opportunity for a truly clean slate with the next manager the longer we persist with a bad situation and false hope, and the deeper a hole we dig for ourselves. One that we may not be able to climb out of.
Bottom-line is, we’re going to lose, either way – whether we chose to get rid of Rafa now, or to wait until the end of the Season, or until next Season when things may not get any better as long as he stubbornly continues to insist that he knows better than anyone else when facts dictate otherwise. The question is do you want to lose small (GBP 20 million or less pay-out – Now) or do you want to lose BIG (Pay-out plus Champion’s League and Europa football for the next couple of Seasons or more, plus any chances of big-name signings)?
Enough with the excuses already.
I thought you wrote a good enough article and I think Rafa deserves to be given until the end of the season to turn things around
Mr. Ruxpin-
Let me just start with this… I agree with just about all of your arguments against what I had to say, despite the fact that you were condescending and a bit of a prat about it (*don’t worry… I have a good sense of humor about it!
*). You have well-thought-out arguments that could very well be useful in a debate to sway the opinions of forum-dwellers and blog-writers, as well as supporters. Unfortunately for both yourself and yours truly, that is absolutely irrelevant in what happens at our club.
It is indeed true that Rafa’s sacking, or lack thereof, cannot be thought of from the minds of US as supporters, but instead from the minds of our owners, who actually hold the power to do so. If you or I would be able to sack him, than these are indeed excuses, and you and I both know he’d probably be gone already because we are emotional creatures who make far too rash of judgments, as there is no money or business to be thought of. I’ll be honest, there has been more than one time I have wished for his head on a silver plate (figuratively speaking, naturally). When I wrote this article, I made sure I was not writing as if I were some sort of new owner who all of a sudden could make a choice. Instead, I wrote it from the point of view from Hicks & Gillette… which is the only point of view that matters at the moment.
Instead of thinking from the point of view of someone who is not in power, you have to think as if you were in their shoes… and those shoes probably feel a bit tight and uncomfortable at the moment. It is true that money will be lost no matter what happens, but like I said, it isn’t up to us. When you are an owner who is so completely disliked and under the gun to make the right decisions, there is a lot more to it than just “oh my God, we might not make the Champions League.” As far as Hicks is concerned, he knows damn well that sacking Rafa could lead to an absolute uproar… something he does not need after all the other uproars already.
All I am suggesting in my article is that there is so much more than form and the thoughts of us supporters that will go into the sacking, or lack thereof, of Rafa. You can feel free to disagree with how I feel the board and owners are feeling. That’s fine. Like I said, I am not an owner and don’t have to deal with those things. I’m just telling everyone why I think Rafa won’t be sacked, that’s all.
Agree to disagree?
Okay mate.
Sorry about the condescending attitude and the prattishness ( is that even a word). But I haven’t been this frustrated and depressed about the state of the club since the Sounness era, and even then we were barely a few years just out of our glory days.
I just think that the owners, are afraid to act on the Rafa situation now, because they’ve made the estimation (erroneously, I believe) that sacking Rafa, will cost them the fan-base which is where their major financial concern is. Liverpool’s greatest asset has always tended to be its famously loyal and supportive fans. And I mean world-famous. To the extent that if you remove that support, in any way form or fashion, even a new stadium getting built will mean nothing (financially, at least) when you can’t fill the seats. Liverpudlians will always fill the seats at their stadium regardless of whether the team is winning or losing, I doubt that would happen at Old Trafford, and it certainly doesn’t happen consistently at the Emirates or the Bridge.
Unfortunately, that loyalty is also the biggest thorn in the side of the team’s perfomance right now, because as long as Benitez believe’s he has that support in his pocket, he will always feel he has carte blanche to do whatever the hell he wants whether or not it makes sense on teh field. So much so that he sometimes even seems to be trying to make a point (in his characteristic stubbornness) to certain sections of the Press and sports punditry. Especially with things like a persistence on playing a misfiring Kuyt, and a non-creative Lucas, or a defensive formation against weaker teams in games we need to win and not draw or lose. Or his famously terrible man-management with the treatment of an on-form (now out of form) Yossi, Babel and Alonso, Keane, and Crouch before them. It’s like he has to be proven right – just like last Season when he kept getting hammered on his perpetual rotation of the line-ups and he would keep doing it, until he stopped in late February, and we began that late Season run. But this Season it (this stubborn and proud streak) has caught up with him and we are all hurting as a result. Starting from the Summer when he absolutely refused to buy a back-up striker for injury-prone Torres when everyone in the press kept saying that that’s what he should do – to his now insistence on a 4-2-3-1 formation rather than pairing Torres with another Striker up front like N’Gog (which worked when he did it last week by the way) and instead leaving Torres isolated and exposed to opposing team’s defenses.
And the fans who keep defending him to the hilt ( in my opinion) are the ones giving him license to do all this while giving the owners pause to firing him. Oh, I believe that as incompetent as they are, they can afford to let him go for either the 20 Mill GBP or at least re-negotiate that buy-out clause, especially when they can financially justify the fall-out of keeping him on,and still keep the fans onside.
But here’s the thing, Liverpool fans are never going to stop supporting the club – sure there’ll be those that will be inconsolably mad at the owners and even stay away from a couple of games; but it’s all just a false scare taken in by 2 American owners unfamiliar with the British game and sporting environment.
That’s what I think anyway. I’m just tired of reading all the numerous apologist articles on the web supporting him and his (sometimes……okay, most times) ridiculous decisions on the field – and for a moment there, yours seemed like one of them. But fair play mate.
I TOTALLY agree with you about the “thorn in the side” comment. It was what kept Houllier in his job for far too long, as well.
I am just as frustrated, and your points are all spot on, particularly in this second response. I would like to see Kuyt be part of the rotation, as well, when he is misfiring, not just get automatic favor when the likes of Benni and Babel are playing better. And what the f*** is with Lucas getting playing time still? Isn’t it bleeding obvious that he is well past his depth?
I’m now at the point where I think I’d probably like to see Rafa go… but I just don’t see it happening, as I said before (and as you said…).
CHEERS for the good discussion!